Talking Tipster

Audited accuracy

Every prediction is saved before the match in a record that cannot be edited or deleted, and is automatically compared with the result. It's all here: hits, misses and how well calibrated the probabilities are.

The full record

360matches audited since Fri, Oct 23
52%times the model's favorite won
0.589Live Brier (0 would be perfect; lower is better)
0.589Brier over 25,348 backtest matches; the betting market achieves 0.590

Do our probabilities come true?

Picking the winner is not enough: a 70% has to come true about 7 times out of 10. That is calibration.

0%25%50%75%100%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%perfectFavorite between 0% and 40%: the model gave it 38% on average and it won 34% of 35 matches.Favorite between 40% and 50%: the model gave it 45% on average and it won 39% of 125 matches.Favorite between 50% and 60%: the model gave it 55% on average and it won 56% of 95 matches.Favorite between 60% and 70%: the model gave it 65% on average and it won 67% of 64 matches.Favorite between 70% and 100%: the model gave it 77% on average and it won 76% of 41 matches.Probability we gave the favoriteTimes it won
Each point groups matches by the probability the model gave its favorite. If it falls on the diagonal, that percentage came true. Hover over a point to see the details.
Favorite atMatchesWe saidWon
under 40%3538%34%
40%–50%12545%39%
50%–60%9555%56%
60%–70%6465%67%
70% or more4177%76%

* Fewer than 30 matches in this group: still a small sample.

League by league

LeagueLiveAccuracyBrierBacktestBrierMarket
Liga 1 Perú30% *1.2809540.571–
Premier League Inglaterra1547% *0.6391,1400.5750.574
Premiership Escocia1362% *0.5496840.5630.563
Bundesliga Alemania1258% *0.5389180.5720.571
Serie A Italia2264% *0.5061,1400.5760.576
LaLiga España1567% *0.5171,1400.5650.566
Ligue 1 Francia1540% *0.6369180.5870.586
Eredivisie Países Bajos1450% *0.5919180.5610.560
Pro League Bélgica1258% *0.5179350.5960.597
Primeira Liga Portugal1250% *0.6119180.5410.543
Süper Lig Turquía1385% *0.3961,0280.5570.560
Super League Grecia1250% *0.4847090.5620.561
Liga Profesional Argentina1856% *0.5471,6320.6380.637
Bundesliga Austria863% *0.5495790.6180.617
Serie A Brasil2055% *0.5071,1970.5950.596
Super League China1060% *0.5147440.5440.546
Superliga Dinamarca1070% *0.5825770.5990.599
MLS Estados Unidos2945% *0.6501,5220.6130.612
Veikkausliiga Finlandia933% *0.7665200.5910.592
Premier Division Irlanda560% *0.5145410.6070.606
J1 League Japón1436% *0.6099040.6330.633
Liga MX México1225% *0.7631,0160.5830.584
Eliteserien Noruega1464% *0.5287240.5650.566
Ekstraklasa Polonia1258% *0.6229180.6330.632
Superliga Rumania1145% *0.6249570.6170.617
Premier League Rusia0––7240.5840.586
Allsvenskan Suecia2138% *0.7437050.5950.596
Super League Suiza944% *0.5726860.6150.615

* Small sample. Backtest: seasons 2023-24 to 2025-26 with parameters chosen using only 2022-23, without looking at the future. Market: bookmaker odds with their margin removed, the hardest benchmark to beat.

Day by day

Bad streaks are published too.

DateMatchesHitsAccuracyBrier
Mon, Nov 9400%1.058
Sun, Nov 8834453%0.574
Tue, Nov 333100%0.295
Sat, Oct 3111100%0.529
Fri, Oct 302150%0.481
Thu, Oct 2921943%0.660
Wed, Oct 28241146%0.648
Tue, Oct 2733100%0.286
Mon, Oct 26171271%0.498
Sun, Oct 25904954%0.569
Sat, Oct 24894551%0.590
Fri, Oct 23231043%0.663

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Explained probabilities, alerts for your teams and the audited accuracy of every forecast.

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